America's economy: A long slog 美国经济:长路漫漫

luwei

americas economy
a long slog
美国经济:长路漫漫
jan 10th 2008
from the economist print edition

the severity of americas downturn may matter less than its length

美国经济衰退长时间所持续带来的负面影响比它经济衰退本身带来的负面影响更大。

americas monthly employment numbers are perhaps the most glamorous economic statistics. though fickle and much revised, they have an outsized effect on the financial markets and policymakers. on january 4th dismal jobs figures seemed to confirm what many feared: a downturn is at hand.
美国的每月就业数据可能是最重要的经济数据了。虽经经常变化和修改，它们对金融市场和制定政策有极大的影响。1月4号悲观的就业数据似乎确定了许多人担心的事实：经济衰退到来了。

stockmarkets shuddered on news that the jobless rate had jumped to 5% in december, and that the private sector had shed workers for the first time since 2003. talk of recession has soared (see article). even george bush has admitted the economy faces “challenges”. if not actually shrinking, americas economy is weak. the real question is not the technical issue of whether the downturn will qualify as a recession, but how long it will last.
市场消息称12月的失业率升到5%，而私营领域从2003年来第一次削减工人，证券市场波动。经济衰退的说法激增。连乔治 布什都承认经济面临着“挑战”。即使不是真的紧缩，美国经济也是疲弱。真正的问题不是技术层面上这个衰退是否能称得上大衰退，而是它究竟会持续多久。

many wall street seers expect any downturn to be mild and short-lived, thanks to the adrenaline shot of lower interest rates (financial markets expect the federal-funds rate to fall by more than a percentage point this year, to below 3%) and the cushion of export growth. the housing malaise, they think, will linger, but less maliciously. and the panic in credit markets will ease, as losses are tallied and banks recapitalised.
许多华尔街评论员预测所有拐点都会轻微且短暂，得益于更低的利息刺激（金融市场期待今年联邦基金利率下调超过1%，达到低于3%）和对外贸易增长的缓冲。他们认为房屋市场问题余波仍在，但是没有这么严重。而信贷市场的危机减轻，损失入账，银行重新调整了资本。

even the feds most hawkish governors are now hinting at more cuts in interest rates. the weak dollar and strength in emerging economies will indeed boost exports, although—if a recent slowing of foreign manufacturing orders is a guide—by less than in 2007. buoyed by central-bank liquidity and sovereign-wealth funds readiness to pour capital into american banks, some tensions are easing. the spreads between interbank rates and safe government bonds have fallen, though they remain above historical norms.
即使联邦最鹰派的官员现在都暗示了将有更大的利息减幅。疲弱的美元和新兴经济体的支持将会刺激出口，虽然-如果最近国外制造订单下降是个指示的话-比 2007年少。受到中央银行流动资金和财富资金将会注资美国银行的支持，某些紧张的情绪减轻。虽然还停留在历史标准上，但银行间利率和储蓄政府债券的差距减小。

that is all good news. even so, powerful signals point to a long period of sub-par growth. the huge backlog of unsold homes suggests house prices have further to fall—by around 20% going by housing futures. lower house prices will force americans to spend less and save more—a process that has hardly started. they will also spread the mortgage mess well beyond subprime borrowers, which would lead to greater financial losses. hank paulson, mr bushs treasury secretary, this week suggested his scheme for assisting troubled home-owners should extend beyond subprime borrowers.
上面所说都是利好的消息。即使这样，强烈的信号仍然指出长时间的低增长。大量未售出的房子显示房屋价格将会持续下跌—房屋将来可能有20%的跌幅。房屋价格的下调将迫使美国人减少花费，增加储蓄—这个过程还没有开始。这样会导致抵押贷款问题蔓延到次级贷款者之外，导致更大的金融损失。布什总统的财政部长汉克 保尔森这周提出他帮助困难屋主的计划将扩展到次级贷款者以外的人群。

the grim arithmetic
悲观的看法

in addition, the weak economy will raise credit concerns well beyond residential mortgages (see article). commercial property looks ever more vulnerable. corporate default rates, stunningly low in recent years, are sure to rise. one recent estimate expects default rates on high-yield debt to quintuple from 0.9% in 2007 to 4.8% this year. if the downturn endures, even that could prove optimistic. rapidly rising defaults and losses could yet trigger another financial-market panic.
另外，疲弱的经济将使信用危机蔓延到房屋贷款以外。商业财产显得更加脆弱。近年极低的公司违约率肯定会上升。一份最近的评估报告预计高产债的违约率，从 2007年的0.9%上升到今年4.8%,翻了4倍.若衰退持续，上述情况还算是乐观估计。快速上升的违约和损失仍可能引发另一场金融市场恐慌。

even if the economy is spared that fate, many effects of the credit mess have yet to materialise. lending standards have tightened, but surely have further to go. americas banks are in worse shape than anyone predicted in august. the business of extracting fat fees from creating complex debt structures is in tatters. banks balance sheets are at once weakened by large losses on subprime-related products and swollen with unwanted assets from defunct structured-investment vehicles. for all the ease with which banks have tapped new capital in the past few weeks, they will be more cautious lenders now.
即使经济逃过这个命运，大量信贷危机的效应还没有物化。放贷标准已经收紧，但是肯定还没有结束。8月份没有人能预计到现在美国银行的状况。通过制造复杂借贷结构而从中获取丰厚费用的经营方法已经失败。次贷相关产品和结构性投资工具所购买的无用资产马上削弱和扩大了银行资产负债表。虽然轻松的是，过去几周银行已经得到新的资金支持了，但是将来他们在放贷上会更加谨慎。

put together falling asset prices, rising defaults and tighter credit and it is hard to see how the economy will bounce back quickly. history, too, suggests the hangover will last. a new study finds that, on measures from capital inflows to asset-price rises, the build-up to americas mortgage crisis looks eerily like earlier financial crises in rich countries. in the average rich-country banking crisis, it took two years for growth to return to trend; at worst it took more than three (see article).
资产贬值，违约上升加上紧缩信贷，我们很难看出经济如何能快速地复苏。历史也证明余波仍将持续。新研究表明从计算资金流入到资产价值上升，美国抵押贷款危机的恢复看起来与早期富裕国家金融危机极其相似。从富裕国家银行危机的经验看，增长恢复正常趋势的平均年限是两年，最多长达3年以上。

the parallels are not perfect, but their message is that whether or not the economy falls into an official recession, it will probably stay weak for longer than many now expect. prudently looser monetary policy will help, but cannot reverse the credit cycle or the bursting of the housing bubble. nor will modest fiscal stimulus of the sort congress is talking about. as mr paulson admitted this week “there is not a single or simple solution that will undo the excesses of the last few years.” america faces a long, hard slog.
这种比较不是完美的，但告诉我们的是不管经济是否进入真正的大衰退时期，经济仍可能将持续疲弱，时间比任何人预计的都要长。谨慎松弛的货币政策会有帮助，但是不能恢复信贷周期或者修复房屋市场泡沫。而国会正在讨论的那种适度财政刺激也不能。正如这周保尔森先生承认的一样，“没有任何单个或简单解决过去几年过剩的方法。”美国面临着一条长而艰难的道路。