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标题: 【原创】汇率政策调整对钢市的影响 [打印本页]
作者: JMP    时间: 2010-6-20 22:23
标题: 【原创】汇率政策调整对钢市的影响
2010年6月20日，我国政府重申继续动人民币汇率形成机制改革动，放弃了08年金融危机时采取的紧定美圆的固定汇率制度。就这一政策变化对钢市的影响，发表如下观点，以抛砖引玉。
    前提： 总的来说该政策恢复以后，在至少12个月的时间以内，人民币的汇率是升值阶段，这一点不容质疑。理由美国、欧盟费尽心思的向我国政府施压，目的就是让人民币升值，而不是反向。作为我国政府，既然把科学发展、调整经济发展模式及结构作为长远战略目标，就必须有所牺牲。因此汇率升值对政府来说也是可以接受的。
    一、对钢市的影响。
    1、短中期来看，对钢市的影响是负面的，钢价从此进入下降通道。特别是结合国家出台的房地产调控政策、拟推出的钢铁产品出口退税向下调整等，钢铁行业的生存空间明显变小。有的人会问，2005年到2008年上半年，汇率也在升、出口退税率也在下调，钢铁行业不照样红红火火吗，此番就会影响如此之大？主要是面临的大环境不同所致。2005到2008上半年，国际国内经济都是扩张性的，现在是在收缩期。
    2、钢铁行业控制成本的压力更大。虽然可能进口矿会变的有利，但这是我们的一相情愿。因为矿商在报价时也回考虑汇率上升因素。一个简单的现象是在05-08年上半年这一阶段，原油价格并没有因为人民币升值而下跌，反而一路升到了147美圆。
    3、钢铁行业面临的资金压力更大，人民币的升值预期，会使其成为港、台、奥甚至全球有能力的华人、投资基金的投资对象，其流通量可能会迅速减少。
   4、企业间市场主导的重组增加，整合速度加快。
   5、产品有优势且以内销为主，原料以进口为主的钢企效益会相对提高。
   6、待续
作者: xiaoguang    时间: 2010-6-21 06:30
引用：
JMP 发表于 2010-6-20 22:23
2010年6月20日，我国政府重申继续动人民币汇率形成机制改革动，放弃了08年金融危机时采取的紧定美圆的固定汇率制度。就这一政策变化对钢市的影响，发表如下观点，以抛砖引玉。
    前提： 总的来说该政策恢复以后，...

在至少12个月的时间以内，人民币的汇率是升值阶段，这一点不容质疑==ok！接下来这12个月时间内我们将会看到的可能是：    与你所看的有所不同~~   
作者: 空空道长    时间: 2010-6-21 08:29
标题: 升值阶段？
引用：
xiaoguang 发表于 2010-6-21 06:30
在至少12个月的时间以内，人民币的汇率是升值阶段，这一点不容质疑==ok！接下来这12个月时间内我们将会看到的可能是：    与你所看的有所不同~~   
我想说 未必
作者: xiaoguang    时间: 2010-6-21 14:30
引用：
空空道长 发表于 2010-6-21 08:29
我想说 未必

人民币汇改或将又一次推动全球商品涨价，全世界人民就指望中国商品涨价了，但中国商品就是涨不起来－－理由很简单：老百姓没钱了，老百姓仅有的那点钱都让房地产给祸害了。然，房地产仅仅只是个载体，官商勾结祸害百姓的载体＝＝难道我们的政府官员和精英们真的不知道全世界就没几个国家把房地产当作支柱产业吗？但在中国，房地产被说成支柱了－－或许也是对的，搜集百姓财富的支柱！你见过有这样的人吗，买你的东东，非要让你涨完价之后再卖给他，如果我们卖钢材的，都遇上这等好事，你还会觉得累吗？但我们偏偏不能涨价－－理由：还是老百姓没钱了－－利用一切可以利用的工具剥削老百姓！－－s钢老板为何能成为我们大家“崇拜”的对象？理由更简单：生产一吨钢他只要支付两个汉堡（纽约3美元多）不到的工钱给工人便成大恩大德太伟人了！人民币汇改的实质就是外升内贬－－或许这仅仅才是我所看到不同的一小部分，仅此而已，道长大人~~
作者: 无敌    时间: 2010-6-21 14:49
引用：
xiaoguang 发表于 2010-6-21 14:30
人民币汇改或将又一次推动全球商品涨价，全世界人民就指望中国商品涨价了，但中国商品就是涨不起来－－理由很简单：老百姓没钱了，老百姓仅有的那点钱都让房地产给祸害了。然，房地产仅仅只是个载体，官商勾结祸害百...
“人民币汇改的实质就是外升内贬”，哪不是要涨价了哦
作者: 天翼    时间: 2010-6-21 14:55
标题: 支持xiaoguang老师观点！
引用：
xiaoguang 发表于 2010-6-21 14:30
人民币汇改或将又一次推动全球商品涨价，全世界人民就指望中国商品涨价了，但中国商品就是涨不起来－－理由很简单：老百姓没钱了，老百姓仅有的那点钱都让房地产给祸害了。然，房地产仅仅只是个载体，官商勾结祸害百...
权贵资本就是我们无法回避，又不的不面对的，介于我们拥有近两千年的官本位权本位悠久历史，又怎是我辈可能撼动地？所以要和谐！那什么是和谐呢？第一 看不惯的必须看得惯！ 第二 忍不了的必须忍得了！必须以，以上两点为座右铭,方才能做到和谐！
作者: 空空道长    时间: 2010-6-21 18:15
标题: 我想说的就是外升内贬
引用：
xiaoguang 发表于 2010-6-21 14:30
人民币汇改或将又一次推动全球商品涨价，全世界人民就指望中国商品涨价了，但中国商品就是涨不起来－－理由很简单：老百姓没钱了，老百姓仅有的那点钱都让房地产给祸害了。然，房地产仅仅只是个载体，官商勾结祸害百...
看看自己身边的东西，价格比几年前上了多少？再 看看我们钢材价格上了多少？   
作者: xck147    时间: 2010-6-22 10:40
标题: 透彻！！！
引用：
xiaoguang 发表于 2010-6-21 14:30
人民币汇改或将又一次推动全球商品涨价，全世界人民就指望中国商品涨价了，但中国商品就是涨不起来－－理由很简单：老百姓没钱了，老百姓仅有的那点钱都让房地产给祸害了。然，房地产仅仅只是个载体，官商勾结祸害百...
衷心期望小光老师多多发表如此旗帜鲜明的好帖！！！坚决顶！
作者: luwei    时间: 2010-6-22 12:04
renminbi revaluation and impact on metals prices
 on saturday, 19th june, the people&#39s bank of china (pboc) announced that it had decided “to proceed further with reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime and to enhance the renminbi exchange rate flexibility”. the announcement effectively ends the renminbi’s de facto peg to the
us dollar and paves the way for its appreciation against the greenback.
 to judge from initial moves in markets for commodities and commodity-related equities in trading on monday the pboc’s policy change is perceived to be positive for prices and many commentators have spoken to say that an appreciation of the renminbi is indeed fundamentally supportive of
commodities prices. in our opinion, however, the case is not so clear cut.
 first, it is important not to get carried away with this announcement, coming as it does only one week before a meeting of the g20 due to take place in toronto on 26th-27th june and at which the issue of the renminbi’s value will be high on the agenda. the announcement will presumably be referenced by the chinese as progress on this sensitive issue but it provides no further information
on the precise level or timing of any change. indeed, even by the standards of such official announcements, this one was especially vague. in our view, the renminbi will probably make only a small crawl upwards against the us dollar over the coming months. our current forecast is for the exchange rate to end the year at rmb6.6 : us$1 from rmb6.83 : us$1 currently.
 second, it is useful to reflect on what happened when exchange rate policy was last reset in china. fig.1 shows how metals prices moved in the three months after the announcement by the pboc on 21st july 2005 that it was moving to a managed floating exchange rate regime that was
accompanied on that day by a 2% appreciation of the renminbi against the us dollar and followed over the next three years by appreciation of a further 19%. we can see that price performance
among metals varied widely over this period, with some prices actually falling, which serves as
a useful reminder that each metals market is subject to its own supply-demand dynamics and
it is unlikely on this occasion that we will see metals prices move in tandem in the weeks following
china’s latest exchange rate policy adjustment.
thinking through the possible impact of the policy change on the evolution of metals prices over
the medium to long-term we would highlight four key points:
1. a rise in the value of the renminbi will make imports of dollar-denominated raw materials and energy less expensive in local currency terms. this could stimulate additional domestic demand for metals and lower local-currency energy costs, in particular, could act as a stimulus, ceteris paribus, for stronger economic growth. again assuming other factors are unchanged, stronger demand should support higher metals prices.
2. however, a stronger renminbi will make exports of metals and metal containing goods from china more expensive in us dollars. the overall impact will depend upon the proportion of production costs, such as power and labour, that are denominated in local currency terms whereas for those costs that are denominated in us dollars the opposite effect will apply. on balance, metals such as aluminium which are most power intensive may be most exposed
to a deterioration in the terms of trade, whereas for steel manufactured using imported iron ore (and perhaps increasingly imported coking coal) the impact may be more neutral.
3. related to this second point, a rise in the value of the renminbi will push up the cost curve of china’s producers. in those metals markets ╟ for example, aluminium, lead and zinc ╟ where chinese producers are the “marginal cost” suppliers to the market, a rise in the renminbi would be expected to have the effect of increasing marginal cost price support in these markets, potentially setting a new cyclical floor for prices.
4. the impact of any rise in the renminbi on the rate of economic growth in china ╟ and, indeed, on growth in other major economies ╟ will probably be of over-riding importance as this is the dynamic that will determine the aggregate level of demand for commodities in world markets. on the one hand, it could be argued that a rise in the renminbi should lead to slower growth by tightening monetary conditions in china. on the other hand, it could be argued that a rise in
china’s exchange rate will be beneficial by diffusing the risk of rising trade tensions spilling over into trade conflict in the short term and promoting a rebalancing of growth in both the chinese economy (towards stronger consumption) and the us economy in particular (away
from excessive consumption) in the medium to long term.
 vigorous and wide-ranging debate over this last point, in particular, will no doubt continue.
in our view, setting aside the timing of the announcement, the fact that china has announced a
change its exchange rate policy signals it is confident in the growth of its own economy (positive
for commodities demand and prices) and should help to reduce possible trade tensions to some
extent (positive for the world economic environment and, again, commodities demand and prices).
 however, any revaluation of the renminbi will not provide a panacea to the problems currently
facing the world economy. it is likely any change will be gradual with the result that we are
unlikely to see a sudden step change in commodities prices related to the renminbi. and, we
should remember that each metals market has its own supply-demand dynamics which will
ultimately determine its market clearing price.



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