我来个总结性的--针对铁矿石涨价10%谣传分析

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狼行天下 发表于 2006-4-6 15:13
近期，铁矿石涨价问题一直为业界所关注。昨日国内媒体网站纷纷转载《澳大利亚金融评论》报道说以宝钢集团(baosteel)为代表的中国钢铁企业已经愿意在铁矿石价格谈判上做出让步，同意接受今年铁矿石价格在去年涨价71%的...

看看2006年3月31日bloomberg的这片文章：

vale seeks 24% iron-ore price rise from steelmakers

cia. vale do rio doce, the worlds largest iron-ore producer, wants steelmakers  in asia and europe to pay 24 percent more for iron ore in 2006 than they paid in 2005, vale spokesman fernando thompson said in an interview.

vale made the proposal during the fourth round of talks between chinese steelmakers and mining companies to  set 2006 prices for the main steel ingredient, thompson said by phone. rio de janeiro-based vale and australias rio tinto ltd. and bhp billiton plc. account for three-quarters of the worlds iron-ore trade. vales proposal is its own, thompson said.

vale chief executive officer roger agnelli, 47, said on march 24 that price increases are necessary because iron-ore demand, driven by chinas growth, cant be met by existing mines. the chinese government, concerned about a 72 percent iron-ore price rise in 2005, has moved to cap prices.

``the vale proposal seems like a concession because most were expecting that  theyd ask for more, said pedro galdi, a steel and mining analyst with the sao paulo unit of hollands abn amro bank nv. ``the mining companies  still have a lot of power on their side so i think that a final price increase of about 20 percent is still possible.

world iron-ore prices will rise 15.6 percent in 2006 and are unlikely to fall until 2007, according to estimates by cia. siderurgica nacional in a report on its planned expansion of it casa de pedra iron-ore mine in brazil and published on the company web site. prices will rise because iron-ore supply will lag demand by about 1.7 percent in 2006 and demand will exceed supply until the end of 2010, the report said.

csn monday announced a $1.5 billion expansion of its mine designed to raise capacity to 53 million metric tons a year by 2011, more than half for export. csn sells all ore that it doesnt use through cia. vale do rio doce, the  worlds largest iron-ore company. last year csn won a brazilian antitrust case that may end vales right of first refusal ore from csns mine.

          zou jian, chairman of the china metallurgical and mining association, said yesterday that chinese steelmakers wont accept an increase of more than 10 percent. steelmakers intend to keep fighting for a decrease, he said.                

china produces 80 percent of its steel in blast furnaces, compared with a global average of 60 percent, making it the country most exposed to price fluctuations, meps said. on march 27 vale said it would temporarily close its iron- ore pellet plant in sao luis, brazil, so it can sell more semi- processed ore to china.

demand  for iron-ore pellets, a processed and concentrated ore product that vale  exports  primarily to europe, has ``stabilized, thompson said in an e-mailed statement march 27 the move will let vale send more semi-processed ore,  known  as ``fine ore and ``granulated ore, to china, where demand is soaring.