我来个总结性的--针对铁矿石涨价10%谣传分析

狼行天下

近期，铁矿石涨价问题一直为业界所关注。昨日国内媒体网站纷纷转载《澳大利亚金融评论》报道说以宝钢集团(baosteel)为代表的中国钢铁企业已经愿意在铁矿石价格谈判上做出让步，同意接受今年铁矿石价格在去年涨价71%的基础上再次上涨10%；随后，中钢协负责人表示纯属媒体炒作。
以致国内两大钢铁网站态度、立场明显对立。我的钢铁网引自《中国经济网报道》〈铁矿石谈判-中方在最后一刻妥协真实原因〉从市场供需角度来分析、判定铁矿石涨价已成事实。钢之家发表文章〈钢协负责人：铁矿石涨价10%为谣传〉，并在论坛中发帖进行论证，追究虚假消息源头。
分析原因有两点：
一、3月28日，在中国钢铁工业发展循环境经济研讨会上，宝钢总经理徐乐江曾说：1、矿山和钢厂是供需关系，在市场经济中，供需关系决定价格是客观规律。2、对于今年的谈判形势，徐乐江说：“说到底还是我们的粗放式发展模式走得太快、太猛。”　有媒体开始称宝钢集团总经理徐乐江向业界释放出一个信号：今年的铁矿石将要涨价。
二、为国内翻译错误，《澳大利亚金融评论》新闻稿“中国准备接受10%涨价”，其中提到“宝钢在接受10%涨价上犹豫不决，中国钢铁企业可能做出让步……”(chinese steel mills may concede to demands by iron ore producers for higher prices after lead negotiator baosteel flagged a willingness to accept a 10 per cent price rise.)因此近日有关中国接受10%涨价的新闻皆为子虚乌有。　
   不论此消息真实与否，业内人士普遍认为铁矿石将涨价5%-10%，从实质上来讲，将会造成钢厂成本的上升，属于长期影响；从心理上来讲，短期内会引起钢市的波动，但其应影响将是短暂的，且其影响因素已经得到部分释放。

诚信为本

顶！

东北风

好贴要加精!
顶!!!

柳树

好贴就表删吗？

钢市精灵

老师,因为这是在论坛,不属于钢之家的意见,纯粹个人意见,不删又何妨?,删了可惜了.言论自由嘛.

阿杜

应该扔到《原料天地》去

liwen

引用：

狼行天下 发表于 2006-4-6 15:13
近期，铁矿石涨价问题一直为业界所关注。昨日国内媒体网站纷纷转载《澳大利亚金融评论》报道说以宝钢集团(baosteel)为代表的中国钢铁企业已经愿意在铁矿石价格谈判上做出让步，同意接受今年铁矿石价格在去年涨价71%的...

看看2006年3月31日bloomberg的这片文章：

vale seeks 24% iron-ore price rise from steelmakers

cia. vale do rio doce, the worlds largest iron-ore producer, wants steelmakers  in asia and europe to pay 24 percent more for iron ore in 2006 than they paid in 2005, vale spokesman fernando thompson said in an interview.

vale made the proposal during the fourth round of talks between chinese steelmakers and mining companies to  set 2006 prices for the main steel ingredient, thompson said by phone. rio de janeiro-based vale and australias rio tinto ltd. and bhp billiton plc. account for three-quarters of the worlds iron-ore trade. vales proposal is its own, thompson said.

vale chief executive officer roger agnelli, 47, said on march 24 that price increases are necessary because iron-ore demand, driven by chinas growth, cant be met by existing mines. the chinese government, concerned about a 72 percent iron-ore price rise in 2005, has moved to cap prices.

``the vale proposal seems like a concession because most were expecting that  theyd ask for more, said pedro galdi, a steel and mining analyst with the sao paulo unit of hollands abn amro bank nv. ``the mining companies  still have a lot of power on their side so i think that a final price increase of about 20 percent is still possible.

world iron-ore prices will rise 15.6 percent in 2006 and are unlikely to fall until 2007, according to estimates by cia. siderurgica nacional in a report on its planned expansion of it casa de pedra iron-ore mine in brazil and published on the company web site. prices will rise because iron-ore supply will lag demand by about 1.7 percent in 2006 and demand will exceed supply until the end of 2010, the report said.

csn monday announced a $1.5 billion expansion of its mine designed to raise capacity to 53 million metric tons a year by 2011, more than half for export. csn sells all ore that it doesnt use through cia. vale do rio doce, the  worlds largest iron-ore company. last year csn won a brazilian antitrust case that may end vales right of first refusal ore from csns mine.

          zou jian, chairman of the china metallurgical and mining association, said yesterday that chinese steelmakers wont accept an increase of more than 10 percent. steelmakers intend to keep fighting for a decrease, he said.                

china produces 80 percent of its steel in blast furnaces, compared with a global average of 60 percent, making it the country most exposed to price fluctuations, meps said. on march 27 vale said it would temporarily close its iron- ore pellet plant in sao luis, brazil, so it can sell more semi- processed ore to china.

demand  for iron-ore pellets, a processed and concentrated ore product that vale  exports  primarily to europe, has ``stabilized, thompson said in an e-mailed statement march 27 the move will let vale send more semi-processed ore,  known  as ``fine ore and ``granulated ore, to china, where demand is soaring.

狼行天下

引用：

xiaoguang 发表于 2006-4-6 15:27
还是不要在此总结为好！我准备删除此贴，如何？

呵呵，俺的立场是中性的，也许真的该扔到原料里面去，