FT:2008年大事预测（中英文对照版）

雪后的阳光

对于2007年大事，英国《金融时报》预测专家的成功率相当高。因此，我们再次敦促他们将谨慎置之脑后，为了荣誉甘冒蒙羞的风险，预测2008年大事。
上一次，爱德华o卢斯(edward luce)以近乎千里眼的精度，准确预见了巴拉克o奥巴马(barack obama)的政治轨迹，仅次于克里斯托弗o布朗-休姆斯(christopher brown-humes)对于信贷周期将出现拐点的预言。给他100万美元的奖金吧！约翰o桑希尔(john thornhill)预测到尼古拉斯o萨科齐(nicolas sarkozy)将赢得法国总统大选，而大卫o加德纳(david gardner)则预言美国不会袭击伊朗。
不太成功的是有关美元将保持坚挺的预测，但幸运的是，在最后一分钟，这个最糟糕的、对2007年的预测被删掉了。我曾满怀信心地预测，新西兰会在去年10月的橄榄球世界杯上(rugby world cup)击败法国。

中国人民币将升值吗？
不会。中国政府将继续令人民币兑美元汇率有序上升，但不会像中国的贸易伙伴所呼吁的那样，让人民币出现一次性大幅升值调整。
尽管海外压力逐渐加大，且中国外汇储备再次大幅增长（可能已增至2万亿美元左右），但在2008年，人民币兑美元不大可能加速升值。中国政府非常看重廉价货币带来的快速增长。他们认为，他们能够应对通胀影响。最终，中国将不得不允许人民币加速升值。但如果通胀率在2008年大幅上升，将束缚住政府的手脚。

北京奥运会是否会成为有史以来最好的奥运会？
鉴于中国进行的巨大政治和财政投资，它最好是有史以来最好的奥运会。过去10年，北京大部分城区都进行了重建。鸟巢体育馆和水立方游泳馆等场馆是令人瞠目结舌的建筑壮举。民众的热情和700万张廉价票意味着，北京奥运会还将是上座率最高的奥运会。即使赛艇等小项目的参赛者，也会吸引大量观众的注意。
但组织者的担忧在于，这届奥运会被视为这个世界上人口最多的国家首次举办国际盛会，人们对此预期非常高。仅仅做到有史以来最好还不够：任何一点不完美都会令人失望。

信贷紧缩还将持续吗？
是的。好消息是，银行和决策者正在采取必要的措施。但即使问题仍然局限于次级抵押贷款债务领域（这是个可能性非常小的假设），全球金融系统仍再需要数月时间来消化损失。毕竟，次贷损失极其惨重，超过2000亿美元。而且，由于这场危机打击了银行的资产负债表，因此，金融机构在2008年将面临减少放贷的压力。
但真正重大的不确定性在于，这场危机是否将继续传染。其它级别的抵押贷款，以及信用卡和商业地产债务的违约率也在上升，这可能再导致2000亿美元的损失。但噩梦般的情形是，风险较高的公司开始拖欠债务。谢天谢地，现在还没有发生这种情况的迹象。但如果美国经济衰退，公司拖欠债务的几率就会上升--这可能给银行造成更多损失，进而揭开信贷紧缩故事的第二篇章。

导致股市熊市？
2008年，全球股市很可能会低于去年年底的水平，但要想进入全面熊市，它们需要从最近的高点下跌20%。由于信贷市场动荡将继续冲击股市，加之投资者担心英美经济衰退和企业调低盈利预测，今年上半年将十分艰难。
但也存在一些积极因素：美国和英国的降息前景，企业强大的资产负债表支撑的并购活动，以及主权财富基金进一步为陷入困境的银行和公司纾困。相对于债券，股票的估值也应该是支撑因素。这些因素应该足以让股市挺过这场信贷危机，而整体而言，上市公司甚至可能在这一年里实现温和收益。

花旗集团将分拆吗？
不会。花旗新任首席执行官潘伟迪(vikram pandit)可能很想拆分这家由桑迪o威尔(sandy weill)组装的银行集团。花旗集团在2007年爆发的问题导致了查克o普林斯(chuck prince)的下台，还引发了一个问题：花旗是否规模过大，难以管理？
与花旗董事长温o比肖夫爵士(sir win bischoff)一样，潘伟迪也是一位科班的投资银行家。两人都知道，通过拆分花旗的投资银行业务，自己或许能够在短期内提振花旗的股价。但他们也面临障碍：花旗必须加大融资，而税负也将是个问题。同样重要的是，潘伟迪将认识到，如果花旗不复存在，一些人可能会试图创建另一个花旗：金融企业正在整合。花旗的问题不是它的存在，而在于其运作不够好。

希拉里克林顿是否将成为下任美国总统？
最可能的答案是：是的。鉴于本届美国政府的民意支持率颇低，除非发生重大意外，否则，这位民主党总统候选人将赢得大选--当然，希拉里o克林顿将赢得民主党的总统候选人提名。
巴拉克o奥巴马(barack obama)在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州的大胜表明，随着选民越发了解他，他们也越来越喜欢他。美国人喜欢改变，而他是一个新鲜的面孔。此外，有一些迹象表明希拉里o克林顿已是强弩之末。尽管她才华横溢，但这位前第一夫人并非新面孔；并且，只要其竞选活动失势，她便会借助其丈夫的人气，也突显了这一事实。
即便如此，相对于奥巴马支持率的回升，希拉里o克林顿更有希望获得总统候选人提名。如果总统候选人提名之争是一对一的较量，奥巴马或许会赢，但情况并非如此。2月份，大选将拉开帷幕，而候选人之间势均力敌。如果希拉里o克林顿在头两轮投票中失利，她不会因此放弃：她的干劲和野心不允许她这么做。她在民主党中地位颇高，并且根深蒂固。奥巴马可能无力推翻其领导地位。

美国经济会出现衰退吗？
2008年初，美国将濒临衰退边缘，但应该不会坠下悬崖，部分原因是美国对全球其它国家的出口保持强劲。然而，美国经济不会迅速反弹，将经历一段很长的增长乏力期。在此期间，任何进一步的经济冲击都很容易对美国经济构成打击。
美国全国的房价将继续下跌，加州和佛州的跌幅将非常巨大。然而，有弹性的就业市场的巨大收益增幅将部分抵消房价下跌对消费者的负面财富效应。失业率将缓慢上升，但增幅不是很大。美联储(fed)的降息幅度可能最终超过预期，但其大幅降息的能力将受到通胀风险的限制，特别是如果石油和食品价格仍处于高位或进一步走高的情况下。

弗拉基米尔普京将何去何从？
普京已选择其亲密伙伴、俄罗斯副总理德米特里o梅德韦杰夫(dmitry medvedev)作为自己的接班人，参加3月份的总统大选。鉴于普京个人的声望和克里姆林宫的支持，梅德韦杰夫将大获全胜。届时他将任命普京为他的总理。
因此，普京领导的统一俄罗斯党(united russia)所控制的国家杜马可能会投票支持修改宪法，将权力从总统转移至总理。然而，即便没有修改宪法，实际权力仍将掌握在普京手中，因为他是现任政府几乎所有公众的焦点。然而，他不会成为一个独裁者：权力在俄罗斯政府高级官员组成的互相竞争的集团之间分配，这些官员会效忠总统，但并非绝对忠诚。

《京都议定书》替代协议将如何进展？
2008年，气候变化问题将出现实质性进展，但总让人感觉是走一步退两步。尽管美国在巴厘岛最终同意展开谈判，以便在2009年底之前拿出《京都议定书》的替代协议，但墨迹还未干，布什政府就开始对发展中国家在未来谈判中的作用表示严重担心。
这将是今年谈判的模式，谈判官员们会在巴厘岛路线图上填写细节。伴随进展而来的，将是各方的相互指责，其中有美国和欧盟，也有担心自己为富国的碳排放埋单的发展中国家。

欧元区利率走势将如何？
欧元区利率将会下跌--但这种可能性也不是特别大。欧洲央行(ecb)在年终时表现得相当强硬。通胀率远远超过欧洲央行的容忍范围，同时，经济数据显示，欧元区经济增长仍相当强劲。如果这种趋势继续下去，欧洲央行可能会在2008年加大官方借贷成本。否则，欧洲央行将在很长一段时期内安于现状，维持主要利率在4%不变。
然而，欧元区通胀率在2008年应会下降，事实将证明，欧洲央行可能对经济增长过分乐观。美国经济走软以及信贷紧缩造成的融资成本上升，只会起到刹车作用。欧元再次大幅走强将进一步限制欧洲央行的强硬情绪，未来还会发生什么，谁知道呢？随着通胀压力逐步缓解，欧洲央行将转向降息举措。

谷歌的下一步是什么?
人们对谷歌的崇拜将继续升温，从而使这家搜索公司的全球市场份额升至75%，营收达到180亿美元，股价超过1000美元。目前，该公司已经超越了微软(microsoft)和雅虎(yahoo)，并证明其有能力继续实现几何级的增长。经济严重低迷仍然是主要威胁。
截止去年年底，谷歌宏大和不断扩大的影响力应当开始迫使网络产业进行调整。第一个结果是：随着微软、雅虎(yahoo)、美国在线(aol)和ebay这些搜索、广告和电子商务竞争对手进行调整，以应对新的现实，这些公司之间可能进行合并。但随着以欧洲为首的监管当局对网络盗版的担忧达到新高度，谷歌今年也会暴露其致命弱点。

雪后的阳光

president clinton, google grows, $100 oil, but no us recession - this is 2008
thefts crack corps of pundits had great success in predicting the events of 2007. once again, therefore, we have urged them to throw caution to the wind and risk humiliation in the pursuit of glory.
last time, edward luce foresaw barack obamas political trajectory with near-clairvoyant accuracy, beaten only by christopher brown-humes, who called the turn in the credit cycle. give that man a $1m bonus. john thornhill predicted nicolas sarkozys victory in frances presidential race and david gardner said there would be no us attack on iran.
less successful was a prediction that the dollar would remain strong, but the worst prediction of 2007 was fortun-ately cut at the last minute. i had confidently forecast a new zealand victory over france in last octobers rugby world cup. robin harding

will china revalue the renminbi?
no. the chinese authorities will continue to permit measured appreciation of their currency against the us dollar, but will not allow the big one-off upward adjustment that the countrys trade partners call for.
faster appreciation against the dollar is unlikely in 2008, despite growing pressure from abroad and another jump in chinas foreign currency reserves, perhaps to about $2,000bn. the government treasures the fast growth a cheap currency brings and believes it is able to manage the inflationary consequences. ultimately, china will have to allow faster appreciation. but only a big jump in the rate of inflation would force the governments hand in 2008.

the best olympics ever in beijing?
given chinas vast investment of political and fiscal capital, they had better be. much of beijing has been rebuilt in the past decade. venues such as the birds nest stadium and water cube pool are stunning architectural feats. popular enthusiasm and 7m cheap tickets mean the games will also be the best-attended. even competitors in minority sports such as rowing will bask in the attention of large crowds.
but the worry for organisers is the sheer level of expectations for an event billed as a coming-out party for the worlds most populous nation. being merely the best yet will not be enough: anything less than perfection will disappoint.

will the credit crunch continue?
yes. the good news is that banks and policymakers are now taking the necessary action. but even if the problems remain limited to subprime mortgage debt - and that is a big if - it will take several more months for losses to work through the system. after all, these subprime losses are extremely large, running at $200bn or more. and as they hit the balance sheets of banks, financial institutions will face pressure to cut lending in 2008.
but the really big uncertainty is whether further contagion will occur. defaults are now emerging on other classes of mortgage, as well as credit card and commercial property debt, and this could create another $200bn of losses. the nightmare scenario, however, is one in which risky companies start to default on their loans. thankfully, there is no sign of this occurring yet. but if the us economy goes into recession, the chance of corporate defaults will rise - which could produce more losses for banks, and thus a second chapter in the credit crunch story.

causing a bear market in equities?
stock markets may well fall in 2008 from their levels at the end of this year, but they would need to drop 20 per cent from their recent peaks for there to be a full-blown bear market. the first half of the year will be challenging, as equities continue to be hit by credit market ructions, fears of recession in the us and uk and downward revisions to earnings forecasts.
but there are positives, too: the prospect of lower interest rates in the us and uk, mergers and acquisitions act-ivity supported by strong corporate balance sheets, and further moves by sovereign wealth funds to bail out banks and companies in distress. equity valuations, relative to bonds, should also be supportive. these factors should be enough to allow equities to weather the credit gloom - and they may even make modest gains over the year as a whole.

雪后的阳光

will citigroup break itself up?
no. vikram pandit, citigroups new chief executive, may be tempted to split up the bank assembled by sandy weill. citigroups problems in 2007, which led to the departure of chuck prince, have raised questions as to whether it is simply too big to manage.
mr pandit is an investment banker by training, as is sir win bischoff, citis chairman. both of them know they might be able to drive up citis shares in the short term by spinning off its investment bank. but there are obstacles: it would have to raise more capital, and tax would be an issue. as important, mr pandit will realise that, if citi did not exist, someone would be trying to invent it: financial companies are consolidating. citis problem is not that it exists but that it does not work well enough.

will hillary clinton be the next us president?
most likely, yes. barring a remarkable upset, the democratic nominee will win the election, so great is the unpopularity of this administration - and mrs clinton will be the nominee.
barack obamas surge in iowa and new hampshire shows voters grow to like him more the better they know him. americans want a change, and he is fresh. also, there are signs of clinton fatigue. for all her talents, the former first lady is not new - and leaning on her husbands popularity whenever her campaign misfires underlines the fact.
even so, mrs clintons grip on the nom-ination is tighter than the obama bounce suggests. if the nomination contest were fought primary by primary mr obama might be favourite to win - but it is not. in february the elections arrive in a rush, and the candidates are spread thin. mrs clinton will not give up if she loses the first two votes: her drive and ambition forbid it. her lead among democrats is big and wellentrenched. overturning it is likely to be beyond even mr obama.

willthere be a us recession?
the us will skate along the brink of recession in early 2008, but should avoid tipping over the brink, in part owing to continued strong exports to the rest of the world. nonetheless, the economy will not bounce back quickly and will instead endure a protracted period of weak growth, during which time it will be vulnerable to any further economic shocks.
house prices will continue to fall nationwide, with big declines in california and florida. however, the negative wealth effect on consumers will be partly offset by adequate earnings growth in a resilient jobs market. unemployment will edge up, but not by much. the federal reserve may end up cutting interest rates by more than it thought it would, but its ability to do so will be constrained by inflation risk, especially if oil and food prices remain high or move higher.

and what about vladimir putin?
mr putin has chosen dmitry medvedev, his close associate and deputy prime minister, as his candidate for the march presidential election. given mr putins personal popularity and the kremlins backing, mr medvedev will win by a mile. he will then make mr putin his prime minister.
at this point, parliament, dominated by mr putins united russia party, may well vote to change the constitution to transfer power from the president to the prime minister. but even if it does not, real power will remain in mr putins hands as he is the focus of almost all his administrations public popularity. however, he is not in a position to become a dictator: power is divided among competing groups of senior kremlin officials, who owe their allegiance to the president but not their absolute loyalty. stefan wagstyl
progress on a kyoto replacement? there will be real progress on climate change in 2008, but it will often feel as if the world is taking a few steps back for every stride forward. although the us agreed at last in bali to launch negotiations, with a view to wrapping up a kyoto replacement by the end of 2009, the ink was scarcely dry before the bush administration started voicing serious concerns about the role of developing nations in future talks.
that will be the pattern of negotiations this year, as officials fill in the details of the bali roadmap. progress will be accompanied by recriminations, from the us and the european union, and from developing countries fearful of being landed with a bill for rich countries emissions. fiona harvey
what about eurozone interest rates? they will fall - but it is a close call. the european central bank ends the year in a hawkish mood. inflation is way above its comfort zone and the data suggest that eurozone growth remains robust. if that continues, the ecb could still raise official borrowing costs next year. equally, the ecb would be quite happy to do nothing for an extended period, leaving its main rate unchanged at 4 per cent.
but inflation should fall in 2008 and the ecb may prove over-optimistic about growth. a weaker us economy as well as the higher financing costs caused by the credit squeeze will only have a braking effect. another surge in the euro would further curb the ecbs hawkishness, and who knows what else lurks ahead? as inflationary pressures ease gradually, the ecb will move towards cutting rates.

what will google do next?
the google juggernaut will gather even more momentum, pushing its share of the search business up to 75 per cent worldwide, its revenues to $18bn and its stock price past $1,000. now it has seen off microsoft and yahoo and proved it can grow exponentially without missing a beat, a severe econ-omic downturn remains the main threat.
by the end of the year googles massive, and spreading, influence should start to force a realignment of the online landscape. the first result: a merger dance between microsoft, yahoo, aol and ebay, as the rival search, advertising and e-commerce companies adjust to deal with the new reality. but googles achilles heel will also be revealed this year as official concerns over online privacy reach new heights, with european regulators leading the way. richard waters